Kenya’s ruling coalition delivered a commanding performance in Thursday’s by-elections, sweeping all seven parliamentary seats and most county assembly wards to hand President William Ruto a major boost ahead of the 2027 general election.
Clean sweep for broad-based alliance
The results, announced by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission late Thursday, underlined the resilience of the broad-based government formed after the 2024 Gen Z protests forced President Ruto to dissolve his cabinet and bring former rivals on board.
United Democratic Alliance candidates took four parliamentary seats, including the Baringo Senate seat, Banisa constituency, Malava and Mbeere North constituencies. Orange Democratic Movement, still reeling from the death of its leader Raila Odinga on 15 October, retained Kasipul, Ugunja and Magarini constituencies in its Nyanza and Coast strongholds.
In the 17 county assembly ward contests, United Democratic Alliance and Orange Democratic Movement candidates again dominated, leaving smaller opposition parties with only a handful of wins. Democratic Congress Party, led by former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua, secured three wards while Wiper Democratic Movement of Kalonzo Musyoka took one.
Ruto hails endorsement of government agenda
Speaking at a roadside rally in Kiambu County on Friday after launching a 170-kilometre Chinese-built toll road linking Nairobi to western Kenya, President Ruto described the outcome as a clear vote of confidence.
“I warned them that empty slogans like ‘Ruto must go’ and ‘one term’ would take them nowhere,” he told supporters. “Kenyans have spoken: there is day and night between us and the opposition. They must go and look for an agenda.”
United Democratic Alliance secretary-general Hassan Omar told journalists in Nairobi that the party was delivering its manifesto “word for word”.
“If you live on TikTok, you would think we are losing every seat,” Omar said. “But the ground is speaking a different language.”
Opposition cries foul
Opposition candidates accused the government of widespread voter bribery and intimidation. Social media videos showed cabinet ministers and senior officials distributing cash and gifts days before the vote, while reports emerged of police harassment of opposition agents in several areas.
“This was not an election; it was a transaction,” one losing candidate said.
Despite the clean sweep, some races remained tight. In Malava, the United Democratic Alliance candidate won by fewer than 500 votes, prompting opposition figures to claim the results masked growing discontent.
Rural loyalty trumps online anger
Analysts had expected the youth anger that fuelled the 2024 protests to translate into heavy losses for the ruling side. Yet turnout among young voters remained low, and traditional rural voting patterns held firm in a country where 70% of the population lives outside urban centres.
Political observers described the outcome as a double-edged sword for President Ruto. The parliamentary clean sweep and Orange Democratic Movement’s ability to defend its turf despite Raila Odinga’s death showed the broad-based government formula still works.
However, narrow margins in previously safe seats and persistent allegations of malpractice pointed to underlying vulnerabilities as Kenya continues to grapple with high living costs, heavy debt and frustration over unfulfilled promises.
For now, the ruling coalition holds the upper hand on the road to 2027. Opposition parties, fragmented and outspent, face an uphill battle to convert online outrage into votes at the ballot box.
