Orange Democratic Movement party leader Oburu Oginga has definitively ruled out withdrawing from the broad-based government arrangement, signaling the party’s intention to formalize structured negotiations with the United Democratic Alliance ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Speaking amid deepening internal divisions within ODM, the Siaya senator emphasized that abandoning the government partnership would contradict the political direction established by his late brother, former party leader Raila Odinga, who died in October 2025.
Coalition Talks Gain Momentum
The ODM Central Committee on January 12, 2026, mandated Oburu Oginga to lead structured negotiations with other political formations, beginning with UDA, following consultations with party members ahead of a planned National Delegates Convention.
The decision came during a meeting in Kilifi County that was notably boycotted by several senior party figures, including Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and Senators Godfrey Osotsi and Ledama Ariko, underscoring the fractured state of party unity.
President William Ruto’s UDA responded positively to ODM’s overture. The UDA National Executive Committee mandated President Ruto to establish mechanisms for structured engagement with ODM to negotiate a coalition agreement, signaling both parties’ readiness to formalize their political partnership.
Internal Party Tensions Persist
The coalition strategy has triggered fierce resistance from a faction within ODM that argues the party should return to its opposition roots rather than align with the ruling administration.
Sifuna, who has emerged as the most vocal critic of deeper UDA ties, faces mounting pressure from pro-government party members. Earlier this month, Migori Senator Eddy Oketch filed a petition seeking Sifuna’s expulsion, citing gross misconduct and alleged violations of party discipline. The petition was withdrawn within days following intervention by Oburu, who opted for dialogue over punitive measures.
Oburu declared 2026 to be a decisive year for the party, stating that critical political decisions currently being made will determine its future direction ahead of the general election next year.
The party leader maintained that ODM has three strategic options: enter a coalition with UDA, form alternative political partnerships, or contest the 2027 elections independently. He emphasized that any decision must be made soon to avoid uncertainty and factional fighting.
Government Partnership Details
The broad-based partnership has resulted in the establishment of an administration incorporating ODM members into various government responsibilities, the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding on a 10-point agenda, and consensus for mutual support between UDA and ODM candidates.
The arrangement proved effective during the November 2025 by-elections, where the two parties jointly won all contested Senate and National Assembly seats, demonstrating the practical benefits of their cooperation.
However, implementation of the 10-point agenda agreed between ODM and the Kenya Kwanza administration remains uncertain. The Central Committee decided that any funds related to compensation for victims of public protests would be channeled through proper bodies such as the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, after courts ruled the proposed Panel of Experts unlawful.
Leadership Question Looms
Oburu warned that any party member with ambitions to vie for the presidency should look for another platform, stating that if ODM decides to go it alone, he as party leader would automatically become the presidential candidate.
This assertion has complicated succession dynamics within the party, particularly for ambitious leaders who had hoped to position themselves as potential presidential candidates under the ODM banner.
The late Raila Odinga’s widow, Ida Odinga, has intervened to urge rival factions toward dialogue, warning that sustained infighting could undermine two decades of ODM’s political legacy. Her appeal helped de-escalate tensions during commemorations of what would have been Raila’s 81st birthday on January 7, 2026.
