In the wake of Raila Odinga’s death last month, Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi has stepped forward with a bold claim: He is ready to guide Kenya’s Luo community into a new era. Speaking at an empowerment program in Kisumu on Friday, Mbadi invoked biblical imagery, likening the late opposition leader to Moses and positioning himself as the one to lead his people to the “promised land.”
“I know where Raila was taking us to, the paths he was following. However, I won’t put on his shoes, rather I’ll buy one that fits me and lead the Luo community the way I know, as we enter Canaan,” Mbadi said, acknowledging the immense shadow cast by Odinga, who died at 80 in India on 15 October while undergoing medical treatment.
Odinga’s passing has left a gaping void in Kenyan politics, particularly among the Luo, one of the country’s largest ethnic groups concentrated in the western Nyanza region. For over 30 years, Odinga — often called “Baba” or “the Enigma” — was the undisputed kingpin of Luo politics, rallying the community behind causes of democracy, devolution and social justice. His death has ignited a succession scramble, with Mbadi emerging as a frontrunner amid a field of seasoned politicians and rising stars.
Mbadi’s declaration comes at a pivotal moment. The Orange Democratic Movement, the party Odinga founded and led, is grappling with its future without its iconic figurehead. Analysts say the next Luo leader must not only unify the community but also navigate Kenya’s fractious national politics, where ethnic alliances often dictate electoral outcomes.
“Raila Odinga carried the light and led our people for over 30 years. He planned to take us to Canaan but unfortunately, he didn’t reach it. However, we must enter Canaan,” Mbadi added, emphasizing resilience in the face of loss.
But can Mbadi, a career accountant turned politician, truly fill the vacuum? His path to prominence offers clues — and challenges.
Mbadi rise: From accountant to Treasury chief
Born in 1972 in Suba South, Homa Bay County, John Mbadi Ng’ongo boasts 28 years in finance, leadership and politics. He holds a bachelor’s degree in commerce from Makerere University in Uganda and is a certified public accountant. His early career included stints as an accountant before entering politics in 2007 as the Member of Parliament for Suba South, a seat he held until 2022.
Mbadi’s affiliation with ODM deepened over the years. He served as the party’s chairman and was a close ally of Odinga, often defending him in parliamentary debates. In July 2024, President William Ruto nominated Mbadi as Treasury secretary in a surprise move that bridged opposition and government ranks. This appointment came amid youth-led protests against Ruto’s administration, signaling a broader effort to form an inclusive government.
As Treasury chief, Mbadi has focused on fiscal reforms, ruling out new tax hikes for the 2025/26 budget and pushing for efficiency in public spending. His role has elevated his national profile, but critics question whether his technocratic style can inspire the grassroots passion that defined Odinga’s leadership.
Mbadi keeps his personal life private. He is married to Rhoda Mbadi and has two children, Natalie and Maxwell. Nicknamed “Mbadi Nyang'” (Crocodile) for his tenacity, he has long been seen as Odinga’s protégé.
Ida Odinga backing echoes
Mbadi’s ambitions gained early momentum from an unlikely source: Ida Odinga, Raila’s widow. Less than a year before Raila’s death, in February 2024, Ida publicly endorsed Mbadi during a function in Nyandiwa, Suba South. This came shortly after Raila announced his bid for the African Union Commission chairmanship, a move that sparked initial succession talks.
“For long, Baba has been training Mbadi, and he doesn’t need any more training. You fit the bill, Mbadi Nyang’. That is it. Mbadi is where Raila’s heart is,” Ida said at the time.
Ida’s words carried weight, as she had been a steadfast partner in Raila’s political journey. Her endorsement positioned Mbadi as a continuity candidate, one groomed in Odinga’s image. Yet, with Raila’s unexpected death, the landscape has shifted. Ida has since remained relatively quiet on succession, focusing on mourning and family matters.
The biblical parallel and political trials
In his Kisumu speech, Mbadi didn’t shy from the hardships of leadership. He warned aspirants that stepping into Odinga’s role requires enduring trials like detention, torture and stolen elections — echoes of Odinga’s own experiences under authoritarian regimes.
“Some people are saying that we should fit into Raila’s shoes, but in reality, no one can fit into his shoes. If you want to wear it, you must be detained for several years, tortured and your votes must be stolen on several occasions,” Mbadi said.
Drawing from the Bible, he compared Odinga to Moses: “Raila Odinga was like Moses who was shown Canaan but didn’t have the chance to enter. However, we must enter Canaan.”
This rhetoric resonates in a community steeped in Christian traditions and historical grievances. The Luo have long felt marginalized in Kenyan politics, with Odinga as their champion against perceived ethnic dominance by other groups.
A crowded field of contenders
Mbadi isn’t alone in eyeing the crown. ODM’s acting leader, Oburu Oginga — Raila’s elder brother — has been floated as a transitional figure. At 81, Oburu recently underwent a traditional Luo ceremony installing Raila Junior as family head, but he remains active in party affairs.
Other heavyweights include Energy Minister Opiyo Wandayi, Siaya Governor James Orengo, Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga. Younger voices like Winnie Odinga, Raila’s daughter, and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino are also maneuvering.
Winnie, speaking at an ODM youth convention in Mombasa on 14 November, emphasized generational shift. Owino, known for his fiery style, has clashed with party elders, positioning himself as a populist alternative.
Political analyst Herman Manyora notes the succession isn’t just about charisma. “The next leader must command national appeal beyond the Luo base, something Raila mastered,” Manyora said in a recent interview.
ODM leaders have warned against premature jostling, urging unity. “Young politicians should go slow,” Wanga said last month.
ODM path forward: From streets to state house
Mbadi used his platform to pivot toward ODM’s strategy. He dismissed reducing the party to protests, insisting political outfits exist to govern.
“There is no political party that is formed to be in the streets. There is no political party formed to demonstrate throughout. Political parties are not NGOs,” he said.
He set ambitious goals: “If we cannot produce a president for Kenya in 2027, we must produce a president of Kenya in 2032. That must be the irreducible minimum for ODM and for our community.”
Mbadi defended the broad-based government with Ruto, rebuking critics who favor alliances with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua or Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka. “We must strategize. We must learn to be in government,” he argued.
This stance reflects Kenya’s evolving politics post-Odinga. Raila’s legacy includes pushing for the 2010 constitution, which introduced devolution and curbed executive power. He contested five presidential elections, coming closest in 2007 amid violence that killed over 1,000.
The Luo community’s political history traces back to Odinga’s father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Kenya’s first vice president who resigned in 1966 over ideological differences with Jomo Kenyatta. Raila inherited that mantle, enduring detention under Daniel arap Moi and forging coalitions that reshaped the nation.
Challenges ahead for Mbadi
Mbadi’s Treasury role could be a double-edged sword. While it grants influence, economic woes like inflation and debt might tarnish his image. Social media buzz, including X posts questioning his charisma compared to Odinga’s, highlights skepticism.
One user posted: “Luo Kingpin is crying over pettiness. RAILA Odinga wasn’t that low!” amid unrelated controversies.
Cultural elders emphasize that Luo leadership isn’t elected but emerges organically. Oburu echoed this: “A new kingpin will just emerge.”
As Kenya mourns Odinga — buried in Bondo amid national tributes — the question lingers: Can Mbadi transcend his fiscal expertise to become a unifying force? His Kisumu speech suggests he’s willing to try, but in Luo politics, legacies aren’t inherited; they’re earned.
