Meet the key leaders who are influencing western Kenya politics in 2026 as ranked by the Infotrak latest survey.
Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya has emerged as the most influential political leader in the Luhya community, according to a new opinion poll by Infotrak Research and Consulting.
The poll shows 50% of respondents identified Natembeya as the leader with the greatest influence on Luhya politics, placing him ahead of several long-established political figures from the region.
His strong showing reflects his growing profile nationally and his firm political base in western Kenya.
Rising star: George Natembeya
George Natembeya, a former senior police officer and Rift Valley regional commissioner, burst onto the electoral scene in 2022 when he resigned from the civil service to run for governor. His tough-on-crime reputation and direct speaking style quickly built a strong local base in Trans Nzoia, a county with a significant Luhya population. Analysts say his administrative experience and willingness to criticise both government and opposition have resonated with voters seeking pragmatic leadership.
Veterans trail behind
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who also serves as Cabinet Secretary for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs, ranked second with 32%. A political veteran since the late 1980s, Mudavadi has served as vice president and minister in multiple portfolios. His current high-ranking role in President William Ruto administration and his status as Amani National Congress party leader give him significant national visibility, yet the poll suggests his regional dominance may be waning among younger voters.
In third place, with 31%, is Nairobi Senator and Orange Democratic Movement secretary general Edwin Sifuna. The sharp-tongued lawyer has built a national profile through fiery parliamentary speeches and an active social media presence. Though representing Nairobi, his Bungoma roots and vocal opposition stance have boosted his standing in western Kenya, where Orange Democratic Movement retains strong support.
National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, a long-time Ford-Kenya leader and ally of President Ruto, came fourth with 29%. His elevated constitutional position offers institutional influence, but the lower ranking highlights the challenges facing established figures allied with the ruling coalition.
Former Kakamega governor Wycliffe Oparanya, now Cabinet Secretary for Cooperatives and MSMEs after joining President William Ruto broadened government in 2024, scored 14%. His move from opposition to cabinet reflects the fluid alliances in Kenyan politics.
Democratic Action Party-Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa, brother of the late vice president Michael Kijana Wamalwa, followed with 13%, while former Kakamega senator Cleophas Malala garnered 10%.
Lower down the list, Mumias East MP Peter Salasya earned 7%, known for his viral social media moments, while veterans Kakamega Senator Bonny Khalwale received 4% and Bungoma Governor Ken Lusaka recorded 2%.
A community in search of unity
The Luhya community, numbering around six million and comprising roughly 14% of Kenya’s population, has long played a pivotal role in national polls. Yet persistent divisions have prevented the emergence of a unified leader capable of delivering a cohesive bloc vote. In 2022, the community’s votes split between President Ruto Kenya Kwanza coalition — bolstered by Mudavadi and Wetang’ula — and Raila Odinga Azimio alliance.
With the 2027 general election approaching, the Infotrak findings suggest voters may be seeking fresh leadership unencumbered by old rivalries. Natembeya commanding lead, combined with strong showings by younger figures like Sifuna and Salasya, points to growing appetite for change. Whether this translates into consolidated support remains uncertain in a region where personal loyalties and sub-tribal dynamics often override party lines.
As western Kenya political actors position themselves for the next electoral cycle, the poll serves as an early indicator: influence is no longer guaranteed by longevity alone.
