As Kenya braces for a series of by-elections on Thursday, the contests have escalated into a high-profile showdown between President William Ruto and his impeached former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, testing their political clout in a prelude to the 2027 general election.
The polls, spanning one Senate seat, six National Assembly constituencies and 17 county assembly wards, come at a pivotal moment for the East African nation. President Ruto’s ruling United Democratic Alliance is defending its dominance amid a fragile broad-based government formed after deadly protests last year, while Gachagua’s newly minted United Opposition seeks to capitalize on discontent in key regions.
Though labeled mini-polls by some, the stakes are immense. A strong showing for Gachagua could energize his movement and puncture Ruto’s narrative of stability, analysts say. Conversely, UDA victories would solidify the president’s grip and affirm Deputy President Kithure Kindiki’s rising influence.
Campaigns wrapped up Sunday, with the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission assuring voters of readiness despite allegations of irregularities. IEBC Commissioner Hassan Noor Hassan said Friday that ballot papers for 22 electoral areas had arrived from Greece, with distribution underway. The commission has cleared 181 candidates across the 24 units, promising free and fair voting.
The roots of the rivalry
The rivalry traces back to Gachagua’s dramatic ouster. In October 2024, Kenya’s Senate impeached him on charges including gross violation of the constitution, corruption and insubordination. Lawmakers accused him of undermining Ruto’s administration through divisive rhetoric and accumulating unexplained wealth. Gachagua denied the allegations, calling them politically motivated. The vote — 54 to 13 in the Senate after the National Assembly’s approval — marked the first such impeachment of a deputy president in Kenya’s history, highlighting a pattern of presidents clashing with their seconds-in-command.
Post-impeachment, Gachagua pivoted to opposition politics, launching the Democracy for the Citizens Party and forging alliances with figures like Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Interior Minister Fred Matiang’i. He has positioned himself as a defender of Mount Kenya interests, accusing Ruto of sidelining the region that delivered crucial votes in 2022.
The by-elections were triggered by a mix of Cabinet appointments, deaths and court nullifications. Ruto’s reshuffle elevated several lawmakers, vacating seats, while the death of Banisa MP Kullow Maalim Hassan and the nullification of Magarini MP Harrison Kombe’s win added to the slate.
Battleground Mbeere North
Nowhere is the Ruto-Gachagua feud more evident than in Mbeere North Constituency in Embu County. The seat fell vacant when Geoffrey Ruku joined the Cabinet as public service secretary. UDA’s Leonard Wa Muthende, backed by Kindiki, faces Democratic Party’s Newton Kariuki Ndwiga, endorsed by Gachagua’s coalition.
Kindiki, campaigning in the area last week, framed the race as a choice for continuity. “We know he will continue with tarmacking roads, electricity connections, water projects and bursary management as well as Ruku did — if not better,” Kindiki told supporters at a rally in Kyenire Trading Centre, dismissing Gachagua’s efforts as divisive.
Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire, UDA’s chairperson, urged voters against “walking into opposition,” warning it would stall development. Muthende pledged equitable bursaries and the creation of an education fund, rebuffing Gachagua’s attacks as “politics of hate.”
Gachagua, undeterred, has mounted an intensive door-to-door push. “For the next nine days, I am on the ground, listening and engaging the people of Mbeere North,” he said earlier this month, vowing to deliver UDA a “humiliating defeat.” Accompanied by Musyoka, Democratic Action Party-Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa and former Speaker Justin Muturi, Gachagua alleged state-backed rigging plots, including deploying armed goons from Nairobi and Thika.
Muturi filed a protest with IEBC, claiming operatives shielded by plainclothes police planned to invade polling stations in Kariuki’s strongholds. Government spokesperson Isaac Mwaura called the claims “sideshows by people sensing defeat.” IEBC has yet to respond publicly.
Political analyst Dismas Mokua described the contest as “an acid test of influence in Mount Kenya and a barometer of the 2027 political landscape.” A Gachagua win, he said, would “puncture the narrative of government dominance” and boost the opposition’s legitimacy.
Tensions in Malava
In Malava Constituency, Kakamega County, the battle lines are similarly drawn. The seat opened after Moses Wetang’ula’s brother, Timothy, was appointed ambassador. UDA’s David Ndakwa, supported by Ruto’s aide Farouk Kibet, competes against DAP-K’s Seth Panyako, a union leader gaining traction.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, whose Western Kenya base includes Malava, faces pressure to deliver for UDA. Failure could question his role in the Kenya Kwanza alliance. To unify, DCP’s Edgar Busiega withdrew for Panyako, avoiding vote splits.
Analyst Felix Arego noted Gachagua’s strategy: “It’s aimed at consolidating his political influence and asserting dominance.” Opposition insiders say the approach — individual leaders focusing on strongholds while supporting others — has rattled Ruto’s camp.
Other key races
Other constituencies offer varied dynamics. In Banisa, Mandera County, UDA’s Hassan Ahmed Maalim faces United Progressive Alliance’s Mohamed Nurdin Maalim. The arid northeastern seat, vacated by the late MP, is expected to favor UDA in a low-turnout race, but local clan politics could sway results.
Magarini in Kilifi County pits Orange Democratic Movement’s Harrison Kombe — defending his nullified win — against DCP’s Stanley Karisa Kenga. The 2022 race was decided by 21 votes, making it razor-thin again. Opposition leaders rallied for Kenga, while Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir urged ODM unity. Mining Cabinet Secretary Ali Hassan Joho called on voters to treat it seriously, shaping coastal politics.
Kasipul in Homa Bay County tests ODM post the death of leader Raila Odinga on 15 October in India. ODM’s Boyd Were, approved by Odinga before his passing, battles independent Philip Aroko and others. Violence erupted 6 November, killing two and damaging property; IEBC fined candidates KSh1 million (USD7,700) each for incitement.
Analyst Steven Odhiambo predicted a tight race: “ODM is likely to lose because it handed the ticket to a weak candidate.” Odinga’s absence, he said, frees voters from party loyalty. Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, ODM chairperson, appealed: “Elect ODM candidates to honor the legacy and sacrifice of Raila Amollo Odinga.” Yet internal rifts, including Wanga’s deputy backing Aroko, complicate matters.
Ugunja in Siaya County appears an ODM stronghold. Moses Okoth Omondi, succeeding Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, faces nine challengers but holds an edge in the Luo heartland.
Baringo Senate, vacated by William Cheptumo’s Cabinet move, favors UDA’s Cheburet Kiprono Chemitei after Gideon Moi’s withdrawal and KANU joining Ruto’s government.
The 17 wards span counties like Tana River (Chewani), Garissa (Fafi) and Turkana (Lake Zone, Nanaam). Contests vary, with ODM and UDA dominant, but independents and smaller parties add unpredictability. For instance, Chewani has 16 candidates, reflecting intense local rivalries.
ODM’s post-Odinga test
These polls mark ODM’s first major test without Odinga, whose charisma anchored the party. Leaders invoke his “last blessings,” but fractures loom. Mokua warned: “A loss for ODM in these seats would send troubling signals about the party’s standing in the post-Raila era.”
Broader implications
Broader implications ripple toward 2027. Analyst Kelvin Ochol called it “a national political clash between Ruto and his former deputy.” Wins for the broad-based government — UDA-ODM — could trigger realignments, affirming Ruto’s base. Opposition triumphs might fuel the “one-term” slogan against him.
Voters like those in Mbeere North express mixed sentiments. “We want development, not division,” said one resident at a Kindiki rally. Others echo Gachagua’s liberation call, citing economic woes.
IEBC has deployed security to hotspots, vowing transparency. With over a million registered voters across units, turnout could hinge on mobilization.
As results trickle in Thursday, Kenya’s political fault lines will sharpen. For Ruto and Gachagua, these “small” elections could redefine their trajectories, proving that in politics, every vote counts — especially when the future is on the line.
