Kenya’s agricultural exports worth about KSh300 million to the Middle East have been disrupted by the ongoing conflict in the region, Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe has warned, as Gulf airspace closures and shipping uncertainty threaten to unravel years of trade growth.
The warning comes as US-Israeli military strikes inside Iran triggered a cascade of flight suspensions, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and insurance withdrawals that have paralysed cargo operations across the Gulf. The fallout is rippling directly into Kenyan farms, abattoirs, flower greenhouses, and tea factories that depend heavily on Gulf buyers.
Trade Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui confirmed the disruption will weigh on farmers and exporters. “While we hope for a speedy resumption to normalcy, the reality of geopolitics remains unpredictable,” Kinyanjui said, adding that the government is consulting stakeholders to establish alternative export routes.
Tea sector faces its most severe test
Kenya tea industry — the country’s top agricultural export earner — is bearing the sharpest brunt of the crisis. Iran alone imported approximately 13 million kilograms of Kenyan tea in 2024, valued at KSh4.26 billion, according to the Tea Board of Kenya, making it one of the top 10 importers of Kenyan tea globally.
George Omuga, Managing Director of the East African Trade Association, which runs the Mombasa Tea Auction, warned that Kenya could lose over 20% of its Middle East export market if the conflict persists. He further cautioned that Iranian blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could ripple into Pakistan — which absorbs 34.7% of Kenya total tea export volume — potentially causing a collapse of the sector.
“The logistics disruption caused by Iran blocking the Hormuz strait may further impact the 40% exports to Pakistan, which may result in a complete collapse of the tea sector should there be no cessation of hostilities.”
— George Omuga, Managing Director, East African Trade Association
The Tea Board of Kenya reported that total tea earnings reached KSh215.21 billion in 2024, a 9% increase from the previous year. Analysts fear even a partial market collapse in the Gulf could reverse those gains and slash smallholder farmer incomes.
Meat and horticulture exporters count early losses
The damage is not limited to tea. Kenyan meat exporters have reported losses of approximately USD7.3 million (KSh1 billion) in the days following the suspension of cargo flights to the Gulf. Over 200 tonnes of chilled and frozen beef and goat meat are sitting in cold storage facilities awaiting shipment, with slaughterhouses forced to suspend operations entirely.
Nicholus Ngahu, CEO of the Kenya Meat Livestock Exporters Industry Council, said the timing is particularly devastating, as the disruption coincides with the Ramadan season — historically the highest-demand period for Kenyan meat exports to Gulf markets. Kenya total meat exports to the Middle East stood at USD11.3 million in 2024, with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, and Kuwait as principal buyers.
Flowers and horticulture — which also rely on fast air-freight corridors through Dubai and Doha — face similar exposure. XN Iraki, an economist at the University of Nairobi, noted that “fresh flowers, vegetables and meat” are all affected, warning that any prolonged rerouting will push freight costs beyond what most Kenyan exporters can absorb.
Kenya Airways indefinitely suspended its flights to the Gulf region following airspace closures over Iran, Iraq, and parts of the Gulf. The airline’s suspension is compounding losses for exporters who rely on its belly cargo capacity for perishable shipments. Marine insurers have simultaneously withdrawn war-risk coverage for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf, driving up freight rates and extending transit times.
The government is now accelerating its export market diversification agenda. Trade CS Kinyanjui said Kenya had already expanded tea exports to 96 international markets in 2024 — up from 92 the previous year — providing a partial buffer against regional shocks. Still, economists caution that Gulf states remain irreplaceable short-term buyers, particularly for premium Kenyan tea varieties and fresh produce that command top prices in the region.
President William Ruto condemned the strikes, calling on the international community to pursue de-escalation. “It is evident that the regionalisation of this conflict poses a grave threat to international peace and security,” Ruto posted on his official social media account, urging urgent multilateral engagement.
For Kenya farmers and exporters, the geopolitical standoff thousands of miles away is translating into empty cargo holds, unsold harvests, and mounting uncertainty — with no swift resolution in sight.
